69% of the tickets on the home team.
Bottom LineLike most playoff games, this one is a tricky matchup to handicap. I can certainly understand why people took Cincy plus the points. The Colts have not been that impressive, and the underlying numbers signal some red flags.
That said, are the Bengals any better? Their passing game fell from a middle of the pack unit to 24th in the second half of the season. The run game? Fell from 6th in the league to 17th. The offense as a whole is worse on the road as well - 22nd, vs 14th at home.
Making things more complicated, the weakness for the Bengals D has been on the ground - something the Colts don't really know how to take advantage of.
Yet, what I think is the biggest factor when the Colts have the ball is whether or not Cincy can get pressure. If Luck has time to throw, I'm not worried about this matchup. And the numbers say he will. The Bengals have the worst pressure-rate in the entire NFL. After Dunlap, who is a threat?
That's not a recipe for success against Andrew Luck on the road. I'll go ahead and lay the -3.
UPDATE: This line is headed for -3.5 fast, and has already moved at a number of shops. If you want IND -3, don't hesitate.
NFL Pick: IND -3.
Read more: Wild Card picks.