Monday, January 19, 2015

NFL Predictions 2015: Super Bowl XLIX

Championship Sunday is in the books and favorites and dogs split 1-1 ATS.  No matter what happens in the final game, dogs will come out on top as they are 6-4 ATS in these playoffs. Favorites have actually won 8 of the 10 games straight up though. Unders are 5-4-1.

Around town, Football Outsiders took both dogs, which left them at 1-1 ATS this week. In fact, they've taken every single dog in every game ATS in these playoffs, and every favorite to win straight up. Go figure. In Vegas, the public and pros were both on Seattle, but they split in the AFC game, with the pros on Indy, and the public on New England.

My picks split 1-1 ATS, with the Seahawks as the non-cover. I got -6.5 before the line moved all the way up to -8.5, but it didn't matter in the end. Wilson had one of his worst games as a pro, and it was all uphill from there. Thankfully, they did manage to pull out the straight up win to cash the teaser. And as a fan, does it get much better than that game?

The line for the Super Bowl is up, and there's already been some interesting line movement. The look-ahead line was going to be Seattle -3/-3.5, but after Sunday's action it opened at -2.5 instead. Within the hour, early money came in on New England to bring it down to a "pick em". Some books are even making the Patriots as a -1 point favorite. This is a bit of deja vu since the same thing happened last year, with early action coming in on Denver. I didn't agree with that at the time, and I'm not sure I agree with it this time around either.

We now have two full weeks to over-analyze the Super Bowl matchup to death, and another 300+ prop bets to sift through, too. I'm already leaning Seattle to repeat, but I'll wait until I dig through all the numbers and variables before I lock it in. I'll also have the prop picks up - including some exotics.