-7 (+104) shortly after the Packers took out the Cowboys, and I wanted to get on it before it had a chance to move up. If I was setting this line, I'd open it at -7.5 at minimum, and even as high as -9 to keep it out of the teaser window. There's not a lot of action on this game yet, but the early money is on Seattle.
Bottom LineI've been on the Packers the last couple times they traveled to Seattle. We all remember how they got robbed by the replacement officials, but when they returned there this year they got manhandled.
What can we expect in a rematch?
As high as I am on the Packers, I don't think they'll be able to hang with the Seahawks on Sunday. Rodgers simply doesn't have the mobility to make the magic happen. He's fine getting the ball out as a pocket passer, but that probably won't be enough versus the best defense in the NFL. His ability to bide time and scramble for first downs will be missed.
And even beyond a gimpy Rodgers, they weren't nearly as dominant on the road as they were at home. They were still 6th in the league, but that's a far cry from first. In contrast, Seattle's defense is the best unit when playing at home, which is always bad news for anyone coming to CenturyLink. At home, Seattle is 7-2 ATS this season, while Green Bay is 3-5 ATS on the road.
And in case you were wondering what might happen if this was close heading into the final quarter, the Seahawks have outscored their opponents 62-0 in the 4th quarter over the last seven games. A big part of that is how both sides of the ball performs in 3rd down and red zone situations. When you combine that with Pete Carroll's 16-1 prime-time record, and the team's championship pedigree, there's no way I'm betting against them this week.
If your book doesn't allow for the affordable -6.5, I'd still go ahead and play this at -7. UPDATE: some books are moving this off the -7 (like they should've to start), so it's best to get in on that before it's too late.
NFL Pick: SEA -6.5.