Sunday, January 11, 2015

For the Divisional games, the dogs reigned supreme going 3-1 ATS, and now lead 5-3 ATS in the playoffs. Also of note, dogs are 7-0-1 ATS in first halves this post-season. Finally, unders are slightly ahead at 4-3-1.

Around town, Football Outsiders once again took every dog on the spread, and every favorite straight up, which means they went 3-1 ATS. The consensus picks out of Vegas were not as obvious as last week. The public were split on all the weekend games, while the sharps were all over Seattle and Denver.

Unlike last week, my picks came out 2-2 ATS this weekend. The Packers came close, but were one point short. Their offense didn't have as dominant of a day as I expected, but they still picked apart the Dallas defense in the second half to take over the game. The other non-cover came courtesy of the Broncos. This was the big surprise of the weekend as the line got steamed by sharp money from -7 up to as high as -10 by kickoff. For whatever reason, what made Denver good all year was nowhere to be seen on Sunday - on either side of the ball.

Now all the attention goes to the conference championships, and I already have one pick posted. There's been some early line movement, so if you like Seattle, it's best not to wait. Both home teams are clear favorites, but as we saw in the divisional round, anything can happen. I'll have a pick and preview for the AFC game up soon, and I'll update both games with any relevant betting info I come across during the week.