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Friday, January 2, 2015

NFL Predictions 2015: Wild Card Playoff Picks

Week 17 is all wrapped up and we can put a bow on the 2014 regular season. Underdogs won the weekend yet again with a 9-7 record ATS.  Dogs finished on top for the year at 127-122-3 ATS.

Football Outsiders was 7-9 in the final week, and finished the season with a total of 111-136-9 ATS. The Las Vegas SuperContest top 5 consensus picks was 3-2 for Week 17, with a final tally of 49-33-1 ATS for the season.  The entry that won the $736k jackpot crushed the competition with a 64-20-1 ATS record (76.19%), which is just ... wow. Via Jay Kornegay in Vegas, the public consensus picks were 1-2 in week 17 (48-46-2 YTD), while the wiseguys went 4-3 (40-49-1 YTD).

My picks went 1-2 ATS, and 1-1 on teasers. Philip Rivers didn't come up with his usual magic this time around, coming up empty on three straight red zone trips in the 4th quarter. The other non-cover came from the Falcons, who got annihilated from start to finish ... at home. The way Matt Ryan was playing in December, I expected a whole lot better than that, but the Panthers closed the season out strong and clinched their playoff birth in convincing fashion.

More importantly, we now look ahead to the real season - the playoffs. The odds are already up on the board, and the consensus lines have quickly taken shape. That Dallas line looks a tad inflated to me, so I'll likely be on Detroit unless I dig up a reason to change my mind.

I'll have betting previews and picks for each and every playoff game, so you can refresh this post for updates on the Wild Card weekend.

Survivor Pick

Every obvious survivor choice won in Week 17, but if you were one of the few who rolled the dice on Miami or New England, you came up short at the final buzzer. 12% of the votes chose "other", which I assume meant the Cowboys, who also won with ease.  I voted for the Texans, but forgot to list it as my pick on the site. They were the only logical option I had left among the big favorites.

Week 17: Texans
Week 16: Bills
Week 15: Chiefs
Week 14: Lions
Week 13: Dolphins
Week 12: 49ers
Week 11: Steelers
Week 10: Ravens
Week 9: Bengals
Week 8: Cowboys
Week 7: Patriots
Week 6: Broncos
Week 5: Saints
Week 4: Chargers
Week 3Colts
Week 2: Packers
Week 1: Bears
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NHL 2017/2018

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54-66-0 (-10.31u)
24-26 (+1.5u)
0-2 (-4u)

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124-132 (+34.13u)
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6-5 (+5.6)

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1-3 (+5u)

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Player Props: 16-7-1 (+14.75u)
Team Props: 13-6 (+15.8u)
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: 0-0
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Player Props: 48-39-7 (+8.65u)
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: 9-20 (-5.3u)
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ML: 144-133 (+53.69u)
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Overall ATS: 277-252-21

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Props: 288-242