Sunday, December 28, 2014

Week 16 was the week of the underdog. Seven of them won straight up, and overall they finished 11-5 ATS.  This puts them up on the season at 118-115-3 YTD.

Around town Football Outsiders came away with an 8-7-1 ATS record (104-127-9 YTD). The Las Vegas SuperContest top 5 consensus picks are 2-3 this week (46-34-1 YTD). Via Jay Kornegay out of Vegas, the consensus wiseguy picks went 2-2 (36-46-1 YTD), and the public were 3-3 (47-44-2 YTD).

My week ended at 1-3 ATS for Week 16, and 1-2 on teasers. The non-covers came from the Ravens, the Colts, and the Broncos. Indy got smacked in the mouth early and they didn't look too interested in punching back. The Ravens loss was more surprising to me though. They matched up really well with Houston, but didn't come close to executing on either side of the ball. As for Denver, that's a loss I sure didn't see coming. Dalton finally got the prime-time win, and Peyton looked mortal.

We now shift our focus to the final week of the season and it's probably going to be even tougher than this week. A lot more teams than I expected showed up and relished the spoiler role - even teams that looked like they were in complete disarray (SF, WSH, CHI).  Comparing the opening lines with the look-ahead numbers, the Texans, Ravens, Patriots, and Seahawks got noticeable bumps, while the Dolphins and Eagles got downgraded.

My usual picks and prime-time previews will be up over the coming days, so you can refresh this post for updates.

Survivor Pick

The Bills were the most popular pick in the poll for Week 16, and they lost with a thud. It's going to be a long offseason of "what could've been" for Buffalo. Getting eliminated by the Raiders is about as bad as it gets, especially coming off that huge win against Green Bay.  The other big favorites all won, but the Eagles and Saints weren't so lucky.  I wouldn't have taken New Orleans, but I would've gone with Philly if they were an option.  How do you lose to the Skins with your playoffs on the line?

If you've made it all this way without getting one wrong, you've probably already won your pool. If not, you still deserve big props either way. This season has been extremely tough to navigate.

Week 17: pending

Week 16: Bills
Week 15: Chiefs
Week 14: Lions
Week 13: Dolphins
Week 12: 49ers
Week 11: Steelers
Week 10: Ravens
Week 9: Bengals
Week 8: Cowboys
Week 7: Patriots
Week 6: Broncos
Week 5: Saints
Week 4: Chargers
Week 3Colts
Week 2: Packers
Week 1: Bears