Saturday, December 20, 2014

Favorites came out on top in Week 15 going 9-6-1 ATS, and have the slight edge overall this season at 110-107-3.

And speaking of records, the worst 6 teams in the league are a combined 28-53-3 ATS. The Raiders have the best record among them, but only at 7-7. I find this interesting because we often hear so much about "fading the public", yet these teams haven't been covering all year - even with inflated point spreads to work with.

Around the market, Football Outsiders spread picks went 6-9-1  (96-120-7 YTD). The Las Vegas SuperContest top 5 consensus picks had a big week going 4-0-1 ATS. At 44-31-1 YTD, they might even finish with a 60% hit rate for the season. It's by far the best record I've seen from them since I've been tracking their results.  I didn't see any picks out of Vegas from the usual sources, so no update on those this week.

My picks were so-so at 1-2-1 ATS, and 1-0 on the teaser. The two non-covers were the Packers and Eagles. Yes the Bills D played great, but I thought it was special teams that was the real difference. That, and Nelson dropping an easy catch that would've gone for a 95 yard TD.  But credit to Buffalo for making the big plays. The Eagles game was a different story though. They looked like the wrong side from the get-go, and despite their comeback, the defense never really came close to slowing Dallas down.  In hindsight, that's the one pick I'd like to have back.

There's only two weeks left on the season, and more and more games are becoming completely meaningless. It's a bit like handicapping the preseason when motivations become more important than the talent.  Week 16 lines are up, and when compared to the Westgate advanced lines, we see that there aren't a whole lot of differences. The Ravens and Seahawks spreads got raised due to QB injuries, and the Bills got a slight boost for their upset of the Packers.

My usual picks and prime-time previews will be up over the coming days, so you can refresh this post for updates.

Survivor Pick

Week 15 picks were spread out all over the place in the poll, but the only two options that failed to come through were the Packers and Eagles.  Those were expected to be close games though, so not a total surprise. The Patriots were the most popular pick and they won fairly easily.

Week 16 looks fairly straightforward, but it does get trickier with fewer teams having something to play for. Stay away from veteran teams that are already making offseason plans. Teams with lame duck coaches are also a red flag.

Week 16: Bills

Week 15: Chiefs
Week 14: Lions
Week 13: Dolphins
Week 12: 49ers
Week 11: Steelers
Week 10: Ravens
Week 9: Bengals
Week 8: Cowboys
Week 7: Patriots
Week 6: Broncos
Week 5: Saints
Week 4: Chargers
Week 3Colts
Week 2: Packers
Week 1: Bears