73% of bets are on the Broncos.
I could just type "Andy Dalton in prime-time" and call it a day for this write-up. What would be the counter-argument? Is there one?
Earlier this season I was fooled into believing that the Bengals had enough talent on both sides of the ball to win and cover their prime-time games, but as soon as the games started it become abundantly clear that Dalton hasn't overcome his bright lights stage fright. In fact, he put up one of the worst statistical performances by a QB in NFL history when he faced the Browns on Thursday Night Football. Is this the game where he shakes free and puts up a clutch performance?
Matchup-wise, it's an interesting game. Like the Seahawks, the Broncos D is top 10 in every category except inside the red zone. Can the Bengals capitalize on that? They are 9th best at converting red zone chances into TDs, but they are 23rd on 3rd/4th down.
So if Cincy's O have trouble sustaining drives, and can't get off the field on D, how will they win this game?
I can't come up with an answer for that, and I'm a bit surprised that we are getting the option of -3 in this spot. I think the books had it right the first time when they had this number at -4.
NFL pick: DEN -3.
Read more: Week 16 picks.