Sunday, December 14, 2014

Another week and another split between the favorites and dogs at 8-8 ATS.  It also keeps the season record split too at 101-101-3.

Around town, Football Outsiders went 8-8 ATS (91-111-8 YTD), while the Las Vegas SuperContest consensus top 5 went 3-2 (40-31 YTD).

Via Jay Kornegay, the "sharp" plays out of Vegas went 4-3 ATS (34-44-1 YTD), while the big "public" plays went 5-3 ATS (44-41-2 YTD).

My picks came up a bit short this week going 2-3 ATS and 0-1 on the teaser. The Bengals went into the 4th Q with a lead, but finished by giving up 25 unanswered points. Yeah, I'm willing to write Cincy off at this point. The other two losses came down to the wire, with the Colts failing on a 2-pt conversion, and the Chiefs fumbling the ball away in field goal range. Always rough to be on the wrong side of those. Finally, the 49ers couldn't even beat Oakland to cover the backend of the teaser. Seriously, the Raiders.

Week 15 lines are on the board, and there's some notable differences from the Westgate look-ahead lines.  The Falcons went from -1.5 to +1.5, the Giants from -3.5 to -6.5, the Titans from -3 to +1, and the Seahawks from -6.5 to -9.5.   I'll have my picks and prime-time previews up over the coming days, so you can refresh this post for updates.

Survivor Pick

There were no consensus picks for Week 14, so it was a bit of a free-for-all. Most teams took care of business, but the Saints had a ghastly loss to the Panthers, and the 49ers shit the bed against the Raiders.  Both teams have been disappointing all year, but still surprising given the opponents. Looking to Week 15, there are more than enough options to get it right for another week.

Week 15: Chiefs

Week 14: Lions
Week 13: Dolphins
Week 12: 49ers
Week 11: Steelers
Week 10: Ravens
Week 9: Bengals
Week 8: Cowboys
Week 7: Patriots
Week 6: Broncos
Week 5: Saints
Week 4: Chargers
Week 3Colts
Week 2: Packers
Week 1: Bears