Sunday, December 14, 2014

Green Bay Packers Vs. Buffalo Bills: GB -3 (-117) (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

Want to see a big line move?  The Packers were -6.5 on the look-ahead line, it reopened at -5 on Sunday night/Monday morning, and now that we're approaching kickoff, it's gone all the way down to -3.  This despite 74% of the bets on Green Bay.



Bottom Line

I had this game circled all week, but I wasn't going to make a play on it unless I got the number I wanted. With a move to -3, I like the value on the Packers. For me, this is too much of an adjustment from the look-ahead line.

Yes, the Bills defense is going to give Rodgers some problems that he hasn't had to deal with in a while, but let's consider that he's also getting some of the best protection he's had in recent memory. The Pack also have a top 10 red zone offense, which happens to be one of the few weaknesses of the Bills D (23rd).

But where I think this game is won is when Buffalo have the ball. The Bills offense rank near the bottom in almost every statistical category, including last in the league on 3rd/4th down, and 29th inside the 20. Usually this would be ok because their defense leads the way, but this is a week where it could become really problematic.

Worse news for Buffalo is the weather. The one thing that could've tipped the scales in Buffalo's favor is the wind, but the forecast calls for nothing more than some clouds.

 I'll ride the Pack, especially at this number.

NFL pick: GB -3.

Read moreWeek 15 picks.