Thursday, December 11, 2014

Dallas Cowboys Vs. Philadelphia Eagles: PHI -3 (-117) (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

Last week Westgate had the Eagles as -4 point favorites. It reopened at -3.5 on Sunday night/Monday morning, but early money has taken the hook and moved it to -3.25. If you like the Cowboys at +3.5, or the Eagles at -3, you can have either with some extra juice.  Betting is pretty split down the middle with 52% on the home team.

Bottom Line

We just saw these two play on Thanksgiving when the Eagles smacked the Cowboys in the mouth.  In that game I wrote that the outcome would largely depend on how they utilized McCoy and Sanchez. It turned out that Sanchez played better than I expected, and they had a nice mix of run and pass that kept the Dallas defense off-balance all game.

Are we due for a repeat result on Sunday night?

I think we will, but I need to qualify that with an asterisk on Sanchez. I've never been a fan of his, but so far this year he's shown that he's able to run the offense when he's up against a mediocre defense, and doesn't have to lead the team from behind. Since the Eagles defense matches up really well with the Cowboys offense, it should provide Sanchez with the kind of security blanket that he needs.

With Philly having a clear advantage against a subpar Dallas defense, superior special teams production, along with home field, I think there is clear value on the Eagles at this number. On top of this, the Eagles have been making a habit of taking down the Cowboys in December.

It's a cliche, but all the Eagles need to do to win and cover this game is execute like they can.

NFL pick: PHI -3.

Read more: Week 15 picks.