Wednesday, December 3, 2014

St. Louis Rams Vs. Washington Redskins: STL -2.5 (-120) (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

Westgate had this game as a "pick em" in the advanced line, but it reopened at -2.5 on Sunday night/Monday morning. Given what we've seen from these teams in recent weeks, I'd say that's an appropriate adjustment. I expect the line to move to -3, so if you like the Rams, don't wait for a worse number. 76% of the bets are coming in on the road team.

Bottom Line

Is there enough room here to talk about all the problems with the Redskins?  They are a total mess from the very top all the way down to the bottom. RG3 has been sidelined, and it's now the Colt McCoy show.

That's certainly good new for the Rams. The Skins are 32nd in the league on 3rd/4th downs, and they could be facing a lot of those 3rd and long situations this Sunday. Very quietly, the Rams defense has snuck into the top 10 rankings by DVOA, and they are 6th inside their own 20, and 2nd overall getting off the field on 3rd/4th down. Also, the Rams DL is steadily climbing the adjusted-sack rankings, and it's a nice boost that they got Chris Long back.

So how is Washington going to score points?  D-Jax is banged up and might not even play.  Possibly via field positions and special teams?  Nope. They rank 29th in that category too.

The Rams offense is nothing to get excited about either, but they've proven to be more effective than Washington in almost every critical ranking. The Redskins are also 32nd vs the pass this year, so Hill should have enough opportunities to make plays if he needs to.

I'm not saying this is going to be a blowout, but there is simply no reason why the Rams shouldn't win this game once we look at how these teams matchup, and which direction their seasons seem to be going in.

NFL Pick: STL -2.5.

Read more: Week 14 picks.