Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Arizona Cardinals: KC +1 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

Last week this line was Arizona -3, but after they flopped in Week 13, it reopened at "pick em". The consensus line is still at "pick em", but some books have the Cardinals at -1, while others have the Chiefs as the slight -1 point favorites. I think we'll see KC as the favorite on the closing line because I can't see how anyone can put their faith in Arizona at this point. So far 61% of the wagers are on the Chiefs.

Bottom Line

When we compare Arizona's offense under Palmer and Stanton, and the numbers aren't good.
This pick is largely a fade of this trend because the Cardinals offense can't get much going at all with Stanton at QB. KC's defense is only ranked 14th overall by DVOA, but they are top 10 in both 3rd/4th down situations, and inside their own 20.  That adds up to another long day for Arizona fans.

Additionally, don't expect much help from the special teams battle either because the Cards are 22nd in that ranking, while KC is 9th.  If Arizona expect to get points on Sunday, it's most likely going to have to come from the turnover battle, and we all know that Alex Smith knows how to take care of the football.

There's no question that this game is going to be a battle though. Arizona's defense is legit, and they usually do quite well in front of the home crowd.  The problem is I don't think that's enough for them to win this game.  I like the Chiefs' chances of moving the ball much better, especially when we consider how inefficient Stanton has been.

It will probably be ugly, but I fully expect KC to bounce back and come away with a "W" in this one.

NFL Pick: KC +1.

Read moreWeek 14 picks.