look-ahead line, to a -3 on the opener. The Titans have been so bad this year that 81% of the bets so far are coming in on Jacksonville. UPDATE: This line has now moved off the key number of '3', to -3.5.
Bottom LineIt's not everyday that a point spread remains on the board when a starting QB is "questionable", but this is the situation for the Jaguars. At the same time, does it matter if Bortles is playing? He's been pretty terrible this year, and a few of the 8 sacks he took last week were because of him holding the ball too long. Granted, he doesn't have a lot to work with either. His main targets on the outside are Shorts and Hurns, and Gerhart is a backup RB at best.
The good news for the Jags is the Titans defense ranks 28th in the league. There just isn't anything that they do very well, so it will simply be a question of which unit is less awful.
I might be half-crazy for actually picking a side in this game, but the Titans have been in a free-fall for most of the season. Jacksonville isn't much better, but at least they can hang their hat on a solid defense and home-field advantage on a short week. I may live to regret it, but I'll take a chance on the Jags.
UPDATE: I'd be on the fence about taking the Jaguars at -3.5 now that we've seen a line move. I still think they are the side to play, and I wouldn't blame anyone for still rollin' with them, but given the fact that -3 was available all week, I'd have no choice but to pass.
NFL pick: JAX -3.
Read more: Week 16 picks.