Wednesday, December 17, 2014

San Diego Chargers Vs. San Francisco 49ers

Market Watch

Last week this game had the 49ers as -2.5 point favorites with -120 juice. It reopened at the same number after Week 15, but we've since seen a move down to -1. Right now, 69% of the wagers are coming in on the San Diego Super Chargers.

Bottom Line

This must be a hard game to set a line on for the books because it's not an easy one to handicap.

Statistically speaking, these teams are pretty even. Based on DVOA, basically every head-to-head matchup on both sides of the ball fall somewhere within a few ranking spots of each other, with two exceptions.  When San Diego's offense faces a 3rd/4th down, they rank 2nd in the league. The 49ers D have been average in that area this year. The other category is special teams, where SF surprisingly rank 29th in the NFL.

Yet, this game is clouded by a couple things. First, the 49ers are out of the playoffs, and Harbaugh is a lame duck coach with one foot already out the door. Second, the Chargers offense is pretty banged up, with Rivers, Mathews, and Allen all watching practice.  Rivers says he's gonna play, but how effective will he be? They only have two touchdowns in the last two games.

At the moment, it's hard to say if we should get involved in this game. San Fran have all the red flags as a team to fade (and a QB that looks lost), but San Diego is too banged up to pull the trigger.  If Rivers and Mathews get cleared to play, I might add them to the card, but as of now it's a pass for me.

Read more: Week 16 picks.