Monday, December 15, 2014

NFL Betting Preview 2014 Week 15: Saints Vs Bears

New Orleans Saints Vs. Chicago Bears

Market Watch

A week ago the Saints were listed at -3.5 in the advanced line. That got dropped down to -3 after they laid another egg at home versus the Panthers. Right now, it's still at -3 (-120), and three out of four bets are with New Orleans.




Bottom Line

In a lot of ways, these two teams are almost perfect mirrors of each other. Both have offenses capable of putting up points, defenses that routinely implode, and coin-flip predictability week-to-week.

So what is it about New Orleans that make them the clear favorite in this game?

There's no easy answer to that when we look at the numbers. The mismatches favor both offenses in almost every situation. The Bears rank near the very bottom on special teams, while the Saints are closer to a top 10 unit.

Instead, bettors probably just trust Drew Brees a lot more than Jay Cutler. Despite the up and down season Brees has had, he still ranks up there as a top 5 guy. Bettors also know that the Saints are very much alive for the division title, whereas the Bears are all but out of the race.

And if you think Chicago has an edge by being at home, keep in mind that they are only 2-4 ATS at Soldier Field this season, and New Orleans have been a lot more competitive on the road for whatever reason (something that is still hard to figure out).

In the end, there are no mysteries for this matchup.  The only option to consider is the Saints due to motivation factors, but at the same time, do we really trust them to put it together after what we've seen from them this year? I certainly don't, which is why I'm taking a pass on this game and looking forward to other options in Week 16.

Read more: Week 16 picks.