76% of the bets are on the Packers.
Bottom LineWhen it comes to double digit favorites, the "sharp" money will usually comes in on the dog. The question for this game is, should they?
From where I'm sitting, the answer is "no". The Packers are the third best team in the league by DVOA, and the top ranked offense. We know that Rodgers is virtually unstoppable on home turf, and the Falcons D ranks as the worst in the league by the numbers.
So what's the case for Atlanta here? Can we make one?
Statistically, the Falcons offense and the Green Bay defense matchup pretty evenly against each other. If we go up and down the categories, there isn't a clear mismatch in Atlanta's favor anywhere to be found. They hold a slight advantage on special teams, but those rankings don't mean much unless one is near the very top or bottom of the list - which isn't the case here. Even worse, Atlanta is 0-3 against the NFC North, and 0-4 on the road outside of their division.
It's obvious that the Packers will win this game, but even if they are up 20 points in the 4th quarter, the risk of a Matt Ryan garbage TD is very real. For me, this number is too high to get involved, even though all indicators point to a blowout. Green Bay have won their home games this year by an average of 23 points, so the only logical approach for this one is Packers or pass. If you're taking a chance with Atlanta, it would be nothing more than a blind contrarian play.
Read more: Week 15 picks.