Market Watch58% of the bets are on the Seahawks.
Bottom LineLet's start with the good things we can say about the 2014 edition of the 49ers. The defense is putting up better underlying numbers than what we seem to see with the "eye test". They rank in the top 10 overall, based mostly on their efficiency versus the pass and keeping teams out of the end zone. The troubling thing for them is two-fold. One, they have been abysmal on third down. And two, they rank dead last in consistency. When they are good, they're really good, but mixed in there are some pretty uneven performances.
For Seattle to move the ball and put up points on Thursday, they just have to do the same that they've done all year - rely heavily on Lynch and Wilson's legs. The WR situation is a mess, but they are stuck with what they got for the rest of the season.
With a favorable point spread, I have no problem taking Seattle. They still qualify as the better team, and when push comes to shove, I trust Wilson in the 4th quarter a lot more than I do Kaep.
I also like this game to go over the low total of "39.5" as well. Both of these defenses are flawed enough to allow some points to be put on the board, and "overs" are amazingly 28-9 in prime-time games this year. We might even be able to get a better number as it has dropped from the opener of 41, so keep an eye on which direction it goes in the coming days.
NFL picks: SEA +1, Over 39.5.