Thursday, November 27, 2014

After Monday's games underdogs led the way 9-7 ATS for Week 12. Seems like a good result for the books, but the three most popular picks were Seattle, Philadelphia, and New England, and all covered.

Football Outsiders treaded water going 7-7-1. Overall they are 74-95-7.

The Las Vegas Supercontest picks went 3-2, which improved the YTD record to 36-24 ATS. Still rollin' along at 60%.

Joe Kornegay's "pros" went 3-2 (27-37-1 YTD), while the "joes" went 4-4 (38-35-2 YTD).

After avoiding the carnage last week, it caught up with me this week.  I finished 1-3 on picks and 2-2 on teasers.  Atlanta failed to cover and are now 4-0 in divisional play, and 0-7 in non-divisional games. Crazy stat. The Packers covered the teaser, but not the spread. Finally, I don't believe in locks, but fading me when I bet against the Patriots might be as close as you're going to get. I think Stafford sliding on 4th and 10 summed up their day.

Week 13 lines are up on the big board, and there are a whole bunch of coin flip games, so it should be an interesting week.  How much have the openers changed by Week 12 results? Check them versus last week's look-ahead lines.

Survivor Pick

Almost every poll option from Week 12 came through with the exception of the Chiefs. I'm still surprised they lost that game, and I wouldn't have faulted anyone for that pick.  There are less options for this week, but also some easy choices.

Week 13: Dolphins

Week 12: 49ers
Week 11: Steelers
Week 10: Ravens
Week 9: Bengals
Week 8: Cowboys
Week 7: Patriots
Week 6: Broncos
Week 5: Saints
Week 4: Chargers
Week 3Colts
Week 2: Packers
Week 1: Bears