Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Miami Dolphins Vs. New York Jets: MIA -6 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

Based on the line change, the Jets stock fell even further this week (if that's even possible). The look-ahead was only -3.5, but it reopened at -5.5. The line has moved to -6, and some books have gone to -6.5. I won't be shocked if this line hits -7 because not even the "sharps" will take the Jets again, will they?  82% of the bets are on the Dolphins, and I'm surprised it's not more.

Bottom Line

Once again all the "sharp" money was on New York last week and once again they didn't even come close to covering. I'm really at a loss for words why people continue to bet cold cash on this team because they now go to 2-8-1 ATS.

Where do we start with all the reasons to fade New York in this game? Because the turnover machine Geno Smith is starting? Will he even have a chance behind the 28th ranked OL going up against the 4th best defensive front?  Wilkerson was a bright spot on D, but he's dealing with a toe injury and will not play. No matter what category we look at it, it doesn't look good for New York.

I think the only concern for Miami is that their defense isn't doing a good enough job on third down and inside the 20. Usually that would give me reason to pause, but the Jets offense ranks as one of the worst in the NFL.

The Dolphins have a lot to play for, while the Jets season is already officially done. Some will argue that the Jets will play for pride in a national prime-time game, but I don't see how that will be enough given the mismatches on the field.

This line should easily be -7, and probably -7.5, so I like the Fins at anything less than that.  If you think it's too many points to lay, you should be able to safely put them in a teaser.

NFL Pick: MIA -6.

Read more: Week 14 picks.