Thursday, November 20, 2014

The beat rolls on as Week numero 11 is just about wrapped up. After suffering their worst week of the year, sportsbooks got some back this week as underdogs put up a 10-4 ATS record. Overall favorites are up 80-77-3 on the year.

Football Outsiders have finally finished up with a winning record at 9-5 ATS. Overall they are still just 67-88-6 on the season, but we'll see if they can finish strong.

The Las Vegas SuperContest top 5 consensus picks entered the week hitting 60% ATS, and they kept it going with a 3-2 week.  Interestingly, both they and Football Outsiders were on the Patriots on Sunday night.

Who wasn't on them? According to Jay Kornegay, the sharps in Vegas were mostly on Indy, while the public were on the Patriots. That didn't work out too well for the "wiseguys". In the end, Kornegay's pros went 1-5 ATS (24-35-1 YTD), while the joes went 3-3 ATS (34-31-2 YTD).

I had a good week going 3-1 ATS and 2-1 on teasers. The only pick that went wrong was the Lions. I could make a legitimate stink about the punt return that got called back, but those things usually even out by the end of the year so I'm moving on.

Week 12 lines are up and you can see how perceptions have changed from the look-ahead lines that were up last week. My picks for Week 12 action will be up over the next few days so refresh this post for updates.


Survivor Pick

There were 9 options on the poll for Week 11 and it was pretty much a massacre. The Saints lost as touchdown favorites at home, the Broncos laid an egg in St. Louis, and the Redskins lost to a one-win Bucs team. Denver and Washington were the top two picks of the week combining for 44% of the vote.

Week 12: 49ers

Week 11: Steelers
Week 10: Ravens
Week 9: Bengals
Week 8: Cowboys
Week 7: Patriots
Week 6: Broncos
Week 5: Saints
Week 4: Chargers
Week 3Colts
Week 2: Packers
Week 1: Bears