Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Green Bay Packers Vs. Minnesota Vikings: GB -9 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

It was nice to watch the Packers whip up on the Eagles for an easy cover, but the downside of that was a significant line move for this week. Green Bay was only favored by -7 in the look-ahead line for this game, but it reopened at -10 after the weekend. We've seen it dip down under that number since then, but I think it's more likely to go back up than come down much further. Thus far, 87% of all bets are on the Pack.

Bottom Line

I qualify these types of picks everytime by saying it's not too often that I pick such a big favorite, especially on the road.

At the same time, one could make the argument that the Packers are the best team in football right now. The main reason is that there doesn't appear to be any coherent way to slow down Aaron Rodgers at the moment. Ever since he told people to R-E-L-A-X, he's been virtually unstoppable.

The Vikings have a decent pass rush, but is that the answer? Can it make up for how atrocious they've been inside their red zone?  As a whole the defense isn't setup to stop the run or the pass with any consistency. The scheme is good, but they don't have the personnel to implement it yet.

When Minnesota have the ball, will they be able to put up enough points to keep up?  By the numbers, their offense is one of the worst in the NFL, and those numbers get worse when they are forced to become one-dimensional. Yes, the Packers defense isn't great, but they are clearly a lot better when they can play downhill every game.

Until I see someone stop this Packers offense, I won't hesitate to keep rollin' with them. I expect another double digit victory this Sunday.

NFL Pick: GB -9.

Read moreWeek 12 picks.