91% of the bets are on the Patriots so far.
Bottom LineBefore I say anything about this game, full disclosure up front - I don't have a good track record when it comes to Patriots games. They've always been one of the most difficult teams to handicap because they outperform their stats on such a consistent basis. One could easily lay the -7 on the Patriots and I wouldn't say they were wrong, but there's no question that it's an inflated number based on the matchup data.
In reality, I think this line should be somewhere around -4.5 (if that). The primary reason is I expect the Lions defense to keep them in this one. Even though they lost in Arizona, their defense locked things down after getting beat early. Yes, Tom Brady isn't Drew Stanton, but Arizona isn't an easy place to win games either.
Detroit matchup well with pretty much anyone because they are solid against the pass and the run. They consistently disrupt drives and know how to get off the field on third down.
Is there a chance the New England keep rolling and finish with a double-digit win? Sure.
Is there a better chance that a game featuring two top 10 DVOA teams stays within one score? I'm willing to say yes.
And even if the Lions are down two scores in the 4th quarter, I like their odds for a backdoor cover now that Megatron is finally healthy.
It won't be a popular pick this week, but I'm willing to roll the dice.
NFL Pick: DET +7.5.
Read more: Week 12 picks.