73% of the bets are on the Seahawks. It's quite clear that the respected money is on the home team.
Well, they are, and they aren't.
As we dig deeper and look at the underlying numbers for Seattle, some red flags pop up. We already knew that they entered the season with less depth on the DL, but they've now lost Mebane for the season. A below average DL just got worse. They've also faced a fairly easy schedule of defenses this year, but have failed to put up impressive numbers in any category. The exception is their run stats of course, but that's a given considering Wilson's abilities. The other surprising thing is they've been a below average team in the red zone on both sides of the ball all year. Not good.
In contrast, it doesn't look like the Chiefs are getting enough credit yet. They are now 7-2 ATS and rank near the top in all the make-or-break situations on both sides of the ball (third down/red zone). Incredibly, they are trending up in all 4 categories in recent weeks as well. As a whole, there isn't a single category across the board that they rank below average in.
All this and they have home field advantage.
So why is KC not favored by more? There's no doubt that KC have value at this number. If we ignore the names of these teams, and just look at them for what they are this year, the Chiefs should be favored by more than a field goal.
I'll ride them for another week.
NFL Pick: KC -1.5.
Read more: Week 11 picks.