Tuesday, November 11, 2014

NFL Predictions 2014 Week 11: Seahawks Vs. Chiefs

Seattle Seahawks Vs. Kansas City Chiefs: KC -1.5 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

Want an interesting point spread? Look no further than this game. In the look-ahead line, Seattle were favored by -2.5. It reopened at -1 after Week 10, but we've now seen a flip of favorites as the Chiefs are now listed at -1.5. All this despite the fact that 73% of the bets are on the Seahawks. It's quite clear that the respected money is on the home team.


Bottom Line

When I first looked at this game I figured I'd have a play on Seattle too. They are still one of the best teams in football, right?

Well, they are, and they aren't.

As we dig deeper and look at the underlying numbers for Seattle, some red flags pop up. We already knew that they entered the season with less depth on the DL, but they've now lost Mebane for the season. A below average DL just got worse. They've also faced a fairly easy schedule of defenses this year, but have failed to put up impressive numbers in any category.  The exception is their run stats of course, but that's a given considering Wilson's abilities. The other surprising thing is they've been a below average team in the red zone on both sides of the ball all year.  Not good.

In contrast, it doesn't look like the Chiefs are getting enough credit yet. They are now 7-2 ATS and rank near the top in all the make-or-break situations on both sides of the ball (third down/red zone). Incredibly, they are trending up in all 4 categories in recent weeks as well.  As a whole, there isn't a single category across the board that they rank below average in.

All this and they have home field advantage.

So why is KC not favored by more? There's no doubt that KC have value at this number.  If we ignore the names of these teams, and just look at them for what they are this year, the Chiefs should be favored by more than a field goal.

I'll ride them for another week.

NFL Pick: KC -1.5.

Read more: Week 11 picks.