Thursday, November 13, 2014

Week 10 is wrapped up and it's already been declared the worst week for the books yet. Including MNF, 9 of the 13 favorites covered. Overall, favorites are up to 76-67-3, which is an even higher win rate than last year (52.2%). There's still time for things to balance out, but I have my doubts. I think the new NFL is here to stay.



Football Outsiders went 4-9 ATS this week, and it brings their total to 58-83-6. Shockingly bad.

It wasn't any better for the "sharps" in Vegas. Joe Kornegay's "pros" went 2-4 ATS (23-30-1 YTD), and the "joes" finished 3-2 (31-28-2 YTD). Todd Furhman's "pros" finished 1-4 ATS (28-29-2 YTD), and the "joes" went 2-1 ATS (22-22-2 YTD).  Noticing a trend yet?

Who did have a good week? The Las Vegas SuperContest top 5 consensus picks ... again. They finished 4-1 ATS, bringing their total to 30-20 on the year.

My picks also finished in the red going 1-3 ATS and 1-1 on teasers. The Jets had 3 takeaways all year, but came up with 3 in the first half vs Pittsburgh. Despite the win, I'm still shocked sharps stuck with NY for another week. The other loss on Sunday was the Saints - who was played by everyone across the board. They had the win-cover taken off the board with a borderline OPI call. It was probably the right call by the letter of the law, but Perrish Cox deserves an Oscar nomination for his flop. The final loss came at the hands of Andy Dalton. He wasn't just bad on Thursday, it was historically bad. I should've known better than to trust him in a prime-time spot, and I absolutely deserved to lose that one. I can live with losses, but that was just a terrible pick.

Week 11 lines are on the board and there has already been a bit of line movement from the openers. The look-ahead lines can be found here. Lots of favorites have been inflated as the books continue to adjust.


Survivor Pick

The Bengals, Saints, and Steelers all lost, eliminating roughly another 25% of voters.  Options are growing slim as we get into the second half of the year, but you can probably survive a while longer fading the Raiders or Jaguars every week.

Week 11: Steelers

Week 10: Ravens
Week 9: Bengals
Week 8: Cowboys
Week 7: Patriots
Week 6: Broncos
Week 5: Saints
Week 4: Chargers
Week 3Colts
Week 2: Packers
Week 1: Bears