Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Green Bay Packers: GB -5 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

There's nothing quite like a prime-time game to affect perceptions in the NFL. In the look-ahead line the Packers were -6 point favorites for this game. After MNF it reopened at -5.5, and now we're looking at -5. I know the Eagles looked good, but this line should be closer to, if not, -7.  Most bettors seem to agree as 79% of the early bets are on Green Bay.

Bottom Line

Is everybody sold on Mark Sanchez?

I didn't think so.

What people might be sold on is the Chip Kelly offense. With a good scheme, combined with a good OL, there's no doubt that Sanchez is in a position to succeed.  Add in the fact that the Eagles defense is improved, and strong special teams, you have a team that has a chance to win every week.

That is, unless you're traveling to Green Bay and facing the best QB in football.

Chances are high that Sanchez will need to do a lot more this week in order to keep up with Rodgers. If Philly fall behind by two or three scores, can he lead them back?  Will he be driving down the field for a backdoor cover?  I doubt it.

I took a pass on the Packers last week because I didn't want to lay a full touchdown, but that clearly looks like a mistake in hindsight. Granted, the Eagles are not the Bears, but Philly's pass defense and pass rush have only been average this season. They'll need to better than that to stay in this game.

With a perfect 4-0 record at home in 2014, I'll go ahead and say that improves to 5-0, most likely with a double digit win.

NFL Pick: GB -5.

Read more: Week 11 picks.