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Wednesday, November 5, 2014

NFL Predictions 2014 Week 10: Steelers Vs. Jets

Pittsburgh Steelers Vs. New York Jets: PIT -4.5 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

For some reason the Steelers were only listed as -3.5 point favorites against the Jets in the Westgate look-ahead line. When it reopened it was up to -5.5. I thought that was an appropriate adjustment, but we've seen it bet back down to -4.5.

Why? The only thing I can think of is the "sharps" are remaining stubborn with New York and are still convinced they offer value every week.  Most (sane) people disagree, with 91% of the bets on the Steelers so far.

Bottom Line

I'm not going to delve too much into the X's and O's here because the matchup is pretty simple to handicap. Big Ben is on fire and the Jets are a mess.

Is there anything else we need to know? Ok, the Jets do show some signs of life on defense at times, but when the game is on the line they fail miserably in third down situations and inside their own 20. If they were at least good in those areas, I might have reason to pause.

What is worth mentioning is that the Jets are 1-7-1 ATS this year. This is exactly why I roll my eyes when "sharps" keep telling us that New York is a good play each week. As we can see, it's not working out too well for them.

As far as I'm concerned, the only time to stop fading the Jets is when they actually improve their play on the field, or the books inflate their number so high that's it's no longer logical to bet against it.

I don't think either of those are taking place yet, so I'll be on the fade train for another week.

NFL Pick: PIT -4.5.

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