Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Buffalo Bills: KC -1.5 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

This game features a bit of an adjustment, but nothing that significant. Last week this matchup was listed as a 'pick em' in the Westgate look-ahead line, but it reopened at -2 after KC put up another win and cover. Most books are sticking with that number, but you can find -1.5 if you have options. Early in the week we are seeing 78% of the wagers on the Chiefs.


Bottom Line

On the surface these two teams look a lot alike. They both have efficient game-managing QBs and top 10 defenses. A closer look reveals some notable differences though.

To start with, the Buffalo offense ranks near the bottom in every single meaningful stat category at the halfway mark. Yes, some of that is due to Manuel, and Orton has improved the numbers, but they are still a unit that won't strike fear into anybody. KC not only have a deadly front that knows how to sack the QB, but they are near the top in drive success rate stops, getting off the field on third down, and keeping teams out of the end zone.

How does KC's offense matchup with Buffalo's defense?  On one hand you could say that the Bills defense has the upper hand. They are good in almost every area too, but the key problem for them has been their red zone defense.  They've been average in that department, and getting worse in recent games. KC's offense not only knows how to sustain drives, they also know how to convert them into TDs.

In fact, KC rank in the top 10 in all the make-or-break categories on both sides of the ball, and continue to rise as the season goes on.

It might be too late to get on the Chiefs bandwagon, but I'll roll the dice with them to cover for at least another week.

NFL Pick: KC -1.5.

Read more: Week 10 picks.