Once the dust settled on Week 9, the line reopened at -4. We've also see money pour in on the Saints as the line has moved to -4.5/-5. In total, 72% of the bets are on the home team.
For starters, there is absolutely nothing to like about this San Fran offense. Kaepernick looks like the same one-read and run QB that he's been in previous seasons, he can't get good protection from his OL, and they are among the worst in the red zone. Adding insult to injury is the fact that the 49ers are steadily getting worse in the make-or-break situations. Yes, the Saints D is nothing to write home about, but they've slowly gotten better as the season has gone on.
On the other side of the ball, Drew Brees continues to roll on as one of the best in the game. And it's not just the passing game that's thriving. They rank near the top of the NFL in run efficiency too.
Can the 49ers stop them? It looks unlikely. They are decent against the pass, but they've been abysmal on third down and even worse keeping offenses out of the end zone (and getting worse).
On top of all that, we all know how good the Saints are at home - especially against the spread.
I agree with the line movement and have no problem laying the points in this spot.
NFL Pick: NO -4.5.
Read more: Week 10 picks.