Monday, November 3, 2014

Indianapolis Colts Vs. New York Giants: IND -3 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

The advanced line for this one had the Colts as -3.5 point favorites. After Week 8 action it reopened at -3 with juice.  Now that we've hit gameday, the juice has been shifted and now it's a flat -110 choice either way. Based on how these two teams matchup, you could argue that this is an accurate line, but I think they were right a week ago when they attached the hook to Indy.  76% of the bets are on the Colts.

Bottom Line

There are three straightforward choices for this game.

1) go with the Colts, who have the X's and O's advantage.

2) play the contrarian and ride the home dog in a prime-time spot.

3) wash your hands of it and take a pass.

I'm siding with #1. The New York Giants are the very definition of an average team at the halfway point. They started out poor, rebounded strong, and now leveled out near the middle of the pack. They range from 11-20 in every single meaningful statistical category on both sides of the ball, with the exception of red zone offense (9th). DRC has been a bright spot, but will he play? How effective will he be if he does?

On the flip side, Indy rank in the top 10 on both the OL and DL, passing the ball and defending the pass, drive success rate on both the offense and defense, and special teams/average starting field position. It also goes without saying who the better QB is in this game, and it doesn't hurt that Wayne and Allen are likely to play either.

Indy got thumped last week, but that's going to happen to almost every team at some point during a season. I like them to bounce back against a beatable opponent tonight.

NFL Pick: IND -3.