Tuesday, November 25, 2014

NFL Betting Preview 2014 Week 13: Eagles Vs. Cowboys

Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Dallas Cowboys

Market Watch

Nothing that happened in Week 12 did much to change anybody's perceptions. This line was -3 in the look-ahead, and it reopened at the same number after the weekend.  What we have seen is some juice added to Dallas, so if you like the home team in this matchup you're probably better off taking the -3 now in case it moves off the key number.  At this point, 57% of the bets are on the Cowboys.

Bottom Line

Does it get much better than Eagles versus Cowboys on Thanksgiving?  Ok, football-wise it's not the most appealing matchup, but it's going to be tough to beat on the drama side of things.

Statistically speaking, the Eagles are actually the better team between the two. They've managed to sneak into the top 10, despite getting blown out in Green Bay, and even with Sanchez under center.

A closer look reveals that the gap isn't that wide at all though. The primary difference between these two is on special teams, where the Cowboys are a bottom 10 side, while the Eagles are in the top 3.

The Cowboys offense versus the Eagles defense is pretty much a wash. In every critical category, they are within a couple ranking spots of each other.

Things get a lot more interesting on the other side of the ball though. This is where I expect the game to be decided, and it revolves around Shady and Sanchez.  If Chip maintains a heavy run scheme, this offense should be able to move all day. If the game is put in the hands of Sanchez, then all bets are off.

And that would be my main concern if I was backing the Eagles in this spot. If Dallas get a two score lead, does anyone have faith that Sanchez can lead them back?  Can he avoid a bad turnover inside the red zone, or in a pressure situation at the end of the game?

Like the Cowboys-Giants game, I expect this one to be close and come down to the 4th quarter. I would lean Dallas, if only for the fact that I have no trust in Sanchez. In the end, it has to be a pass for me though.

Read moreWeek 13 picks.