Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Chicago Bears Vs. Detroit Lions

Market Watch

The look-ahead line for this one was Detroit -6.5, but it reopened at -7 after the weekend. That's a bit strange given that the Bears won and the Lions got dominated, but it's surely in anticipation of where the money will come. Sure enough, 63% of the early bets are on the home team.


Bottom Line

In terms of matchups, these two aren't that close.  The Bears offense has been middle of the road all year (at best), while the Lions have shut things down for the most part (last week notwithstanding). With Cutler on a short week and on the road, it could get ugly - especially if they fall behind. I can't see how Chicago's OL can hold up long enough to keep the offense moving.

The head-scratching thing is just how inept this Lions offense has been. They've been one of the best teams on third downs, but beyond that they are a bottom 10 unit. Some of that is due to Megatron's health, but they should still be more productive than they have been. Is this the week they turn things around? The Bears defense has been embarrassingly bad overall.

Ultimately, the only side I can look at here is Detroit. Laying a touchdown is a lot, but if the Lions can build an early lead we could have the makings of a blowout. That is a big "if" though. We have to trust that Stafford and company can get it together. The Bears D should be a cure for that, but I'm not willing to take that leap of faith just yet.

I am confident Detroit win this game, but I'm not sure by how many. Therefore, the easy solution is to put them in a teaser and bring -7 down to -1.

Read more: Week 13 picks.