68% of the bets are on the Bills.
Bottom LineAt first, we were handicapping this game with heavy snow in mind. Now we have to adjust everything to a neutral field. Who does this favor?
It is interesting that Football Outsiders favors the Jets here, and New York is also one of the top 5 Supercontest consensus plays. Despite the ticket count, there seems to be a general idea out there that the situation favors the "road" team here.
I'm not so sure though. I think a neutral field with good conditions provides a slight advantage to the Bills. Both teams should be able to perform to their capabilities (and deficiencies).
The question is whether those "advantages" are enough for a play on Buffalo? Normally I'd say yes, but how much confidence do we have in the Bills offense? Orton has been getting increasingly more shaky as the weeks go on, and it's gotten to the point where their offense ranks near the very bottom in all the important areas. 3rd/4th downs, red zone, passing, rushing, you name it.
Overall, the Bills are the better team, thanks is most part to a much better pass defense and more consistent play at QB. Given this, I'd like to make a play on Buffalo at -2.5, but in the end I have to take a pass. With Orton's recent trajectory, combined with the situational variables, I simply can't take their side with very much confidence.
Read more: Week 13 picks.