Thursday, November 20, 2014

Dallas Cowboys Vs. New York Giants: Over 47.5 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

Despite another loss and non-cover in Week 11, the Giants earned a bit of respect for their prime-time matchup with the Cowboys this week. In the look-ahead line, Dallas was -4, but it reopened at -3 with juice after Sunday.

Fair adjustment?  I'd say so. I thought the line was too inflated the first time these teams met this year, and it's no secret where the majority of bets will go in this one.  So far, 3 out of every 4 bets are on Dallas.

Bottom Line

It's cliche` to say "throw the records out" when these two play, but once you look at the underlying numbers, it's more than appropriate for this matchup.

Despite what the standings say, not much separates these teams. The Cowboys have an edge on the Giants defense, especially on the ground, but the Gmen have been better inside the 20 on both sides of the ball.

Beyond that, everything else pretty much comes out even, including metrics like third down, special teams, and passing.  The one problem Dallas continue to struggle with is rushing the passer, which leaves a window of opportunity open for Eli Manning.

I expect that this line will eventually move to -3.5, which would provide value on New York, but instead, I'm going to ride the trend and take a shot with the "over".  Overs are now 26-8 in prime-time games, and I see no reason why this should be a defensive battle.

NFL Pick: Over 47.5.

Read moreWeek 12 picks.