Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Oakland Raiders

Market Watch

In last week's advanced line at Westgate, the Chiefs were listed at -6.5. Pinny reopened this game at -6 after Week 11, but it was immediately bet up to -7, which is where it stands now. I can't imagine that the Raiders get enough money to keep it there though. 84% of the tickets are being printed for KC, and we've seen them adjust the juice to -115.


Bottom Line

Based on DVOA, this is a matchup of team #1 vs team #30.  I don't think KC is the best in the league, but their numbers say they are better than the perception is. They show up big in all the make-or-break moments, and have really high drive success rates on both sides of the ball. Their defense knows how to sack the QB, and the whole show is supported by one of the best special teams units in the NFL.

It's almost the complete opposite for the Raiders. On top of all the bad rankings, their turnover differential is consistently bad. Clearly, that's not a formula for success.

So isn't this a no-brainer? Lay the -7 and just wait to cash the ticket?

If there is a case to be made for the Raiders on the spread, it's that they are among the league leaders in red zone offense and defense. For as bad as they are, they don't lay down in those crunch time moments. This is probably why they've managed to cover half their games in 2014. That, along with the prime-time spot, home field advantage, and the motivation to break the winless streak might be enough to keep this within one score.

I wouldn't blame anyone for riding the red hot Chiefs, who are now 8-2 ATS, but I think KC are a prime-candidate to put in a teaser for this week, so you just have to ask them to win the game. That shouldn't be too much to ask.

Read more: Week 12 picks.