75% of the bets are on the Patriots, but should they be?
Bottom LineThis shapes up to be a great game, but what's the right side? You're always playing with fire fading the Patriots. Even when they appear to be on the downturn or in a bad spot, they find ways to elevate their game more times than not. Having said that, there are some strong indicators that the Colts are primed to win (and cover) this one.
I could understand people taking the Pats at +3. New England have already played a couple high profile games this year and came away with convincing victories (CIN & DEN). There's also the question of how Indy will get to Brady. Can they? Probably not without blitzing, and I'm not sure they can cover Gronk & Edelman even if they do. And when we look at the underlying numbers, there isn't a single category that Indy rank much better in than New England.
All that said, let's consider this game from a Colts perspective. The numbers might not give Indy any significant advantage, but they aren't at any clear disadvantage either. Both teams have prolific QBs and passing games, and both rank really high on special teams and average starting field position. On paper the Patriots defense seems to match up better, but stats suggest that both of these defenses are average at best (so far). Additionally, the Colts have been a team that have outperformed their metrics in the Andrew Luck era. This season, they are 7-2 ATS - the best in the league.
In the end, I'm taking a pass in this one. Given all the data, I don't feel strongly about either side. However, what I do like is the option to put the Patriots in a teaser. I wouldn't be surprised if they lose this one, but I would be surprised if it was by double digits.
Read more: Week 11 picks.