Two out of every three bets are on the home team.
Both defenses have clear advantages on the offenses across the board, including defensive lines that can dictate a game. The edge for the Bills DL only goes up with Miami's loss of Albert at LT.
Another advantage for Buffalo that helps even things out is their performance on special teams this year. They rank near the top in that category, as well as average starting field position. As we saw between the Panthers and Eagles, that's not something that should be easily ignored.
That said, there are three big problems with riding Buffalo in this spot: 1) favorites are covering at a 53.1% clip this season (even higher than last year). 2) favorites are 18-13 ATS in prime-time games in 2014. 3) in games where both teams have a winning record, the home team is 25-11.
Given all this, a fair case could be made for either side and you wouldn't get any argument from me. Therefore, I'll be taking a pass on this one.
Read more: Week 11 picks.