Tuesday, November 11, 2014

NFL Betting Preview 2014 Week 11: Bills Vs. Dolphins

Buffalo Bills Vs. Miami Dolphins

Market Watch

Did opinions change much on these teams after Week 10? Not really. The look-ahead line was Miami -5.5, and it reopened -5.  What should this number be?  That depends on what factors you consider and how you weight them. By the X's and O's + HFA, this line should be -3, but once you include the trends this line is probably exactly where it should be.  Two out of every three bets are on the home team.

Bottom Line

Normally I'd see a line inflation like this and jump all over the dog. On paper not a whole lot separates these two teams.

Both defenses have clear advantages on the offenses across the board, including defensive lines that can dictate a game. The edge for the Bills DL only goes up with Miami's loss of Albert at LT.

Another advantage for Buffalo that helps even things out is their performance on special teams this year. They rank near the top in that category, as well as average starting field position.  As we saw between the Panthers and Eagles, that's not something that should be easily ignored.

That said, there are three big problems with riding Buffalo in this spot: 1) favorites are covering at a 53.1%  clip this season (even higher than last year). 2) favorites are 18-13 ATS in prime-time games in 2014. 3) in games where both teams have a winning record, the home team is 25-11.

Given all this, a fair case could be made for either side and you wouldn't get any argument from me. Therefore, I'll be taking a pass on this one.

Read more: Week 11 picks.