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Wednesday, November 5, 2014

NFL Predictions 2014 Week 10: Browns Vs. Bengals

Cleveland Browns Vs. Cincinnati Bengals: CIN -6 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

Week 9 action did nothing to change the perceptions of either of these teams because the advanced line was -6, it reopened at the same number, and remains there now.  Is there any value on either of these sides?  Bettors certainly think so because 78% of the bets are on the Bengals. 

Bottom Line

This is an interesting matchup for a number of reasons. To begin with, did anyone expect the Browns to be 5-3 at midseason?  They've done it by and large without any star power on offense, and their defense hasn't been as good as people thought it would be.

There's not much I have to say about them because the only thing they've excelled at this year is red zone defense and turnover differential.  The bad news is they are terrible running the ball and stopping the run, and can't do much in the big moments on offense.

That's not good news for Cleveland, who will likely be without Jordan, and going up against a defense that does well against the pass and in the make-or-break situations.

The bigger question though is what to make of the Cincy offense. They've been inconsistent all year, and that's come against a pretty easy schedule of defenses.  Part of that is due to injury, but part of it is due to just poor execution.

Despite that, I like their chances this week because Green should play more snaps than he did last week, Sanu has stepped up, and Hill looks like a solid replacement for Bernard.

The Bengals also play their best ball at home, where they are 3-1-1 ATS, and 11-1-1 dating back to last year. On the flip side, the majority of the Browns success this year has come at home. On the road they are only 1-2, and now must come up with something good on a short week.

If you're not comfortable laying the points, Cincy also make for a good teaser option, too.

NFL Pick: CIN -6.

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