Friday, October 31, 2014

San Diego Chargers Vs. Miami Dolphins: SD +2.5 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

This is an interesting point spread. Last week this game was listed as a "pick em" in the Westgate look-ahead. When it reopened it had moved to -2.5 in favor of Miami. Why? I have no earthly idea, but I think they had it right the first time. If anything, the Chargers should be favored between these two, and I won't be shocked if we see a line move in that direction on the weekend. A massive 81% of the bets are on San Diego as well.

Bottom Line

I like the Chargers this week for a numbers of reasons.

1) I've been high on them since Week 1, so I clearly believe in this team to keep up their winning ways (unless they play the Broncos).

2) Their tall wide receivers have a nice matchup against the Dolphins shorter cornerbacks.

3) Miami's home field advantage is always worth a bit less than your average home team.

4) Philip Rivers has continued to be clutch this year - especially backed up by their impressive third down conversion % and drive success rate stats.

5) Miami's completely average offense has no clear advantage over San Diego's improved unit - that also happens to have Flowers and Freeney "probable" to play.

At +2.5, I normally recommend to just take the dog on the ML, but for the purposes of this blog I stick to spread picks. What I absolutely do not recommend is paying full price to buy the +3. It's not fun being stuck with +2.5, but SportsInsights has some good numbers on this dilemma, and it's already 2.5 more points than we should be getting.

NFL Pick: SD +2.5.