81% of the bets are on San Diego as well.
1) I've been high on them since Week 1, so I clearly believe in this team to keep up their winning ways (unless they play the Broncos).
2) Their tall wide receivers have a nice matchup against the Dolphins shorter cornerbacks.
3) Miami's home field advantage is always worth a bit less than your average home team.
4) Philip Rivers has continued to be clutch this year - especially backed up by their impressive third down conversion % and drive success rate stats.
5) Miami's completely average offense has no clear advantage over San Diego's improved unit - that also happens to have Flowers and Freeney "probable" to play.
At +2.5, I normally recommend to just take the dog on the ML, but for the purposes of this blog I stick to spread picks. What I absolutely do not recommend is paying full price to buy the +3. It's not fun being stuck with +2.5, but SportsInsights has some good numbers on this dilemma, and it's already 2.5 more points than we should be getting.
NFL Pick: SD +2.5.