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Saturday, October 25, 2014

NFL Predictions 2014: Week 8 Picks

Peyton Manning put on a record setting show as Week 7 is in the books. Underdogs came out on top for the first time since Week 2, going 8-7 ATS. For the year, favorites have a slight lead 53-50-2.

Around town, Football Outsiders continued to lose going 7-8 ATS, now 41-60-1 on the season. Las Vegas SuperContest top 5 consensus picks went 3-2 ATS, improving to 20-15 on the year.

Last week I tweeted out the season records from "Pros & Joes" according to Jay Fornegay and Todd Furhman. Each week they say who the "sharps" like and who the "public" are backing. Through 8 weeks the reports from Fuhrman are: pros 21-19-2, joes 17-17-2.  Fornegay: pros 16-21-1, joes: 23-19-2.

Take these with a big grain of salt though. We already know who the public like thanks to services like Sports Insights, and we know where the sharp money is going by monitoring opening/closing line movement. I also don't think there is a big gap between these groups anymore, but that's a rant for another day.

My picks were a mixed bag. ATS I went 1-3, but they were a lot closer than the record suggests. The Andy Reid post-bye streak rolled on as KC were fully deserving of that win and cover.  I expected a close affair between the Saints/Lions, but wound up on the wrong side of it. Finally, the Giants couldn't stay within a TD of the Cowboys as Dallas kicked a late insurance FG to seal the deal. On the bright side, both teasers cashed fairly easily as the Packers, Ravens, and Broncos won huge. Sometimes I think I should just play every teaser team ATS too.

We're almost at the midway point of the season, and opening Week 8 lines are already up. Check back throughout the week for all the updates.

Survivor Pick

The three main picks receiving votes in Week 7 were the Patriots, Seahawks, and "Other", which I assume meant the Cowboys. If you hitched your wagon to Seattle, my condolences. It looked like they were going to pull it out, but a brave fake punt and iffy call by the ref did them in.

Week 8: Cowboys

Week 7: Patriots
Week 6: Broncos
Week 5: Saints
Week 4: Chargers
Week 3Colts
Week 2: Packers
Week 1: Bears
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Overall NHL Records

Overall: 1314-1239-38 (+325.39u)

ML: 536-540 (+146.57u)
Regulation: 376-338 (+112.46u)
Puckline: 41-54-1 (+2.22)

Player Props: 167-106-24 (+62.22u)
Team Props: 57-36 (+40.51u)
Totals: 121-124-13 (-20.67)
Parlays: 9-20 (-5.3u)
Grand Salamis: 3-9 (-13.12u)

Futures: 3-12 (+0.5u)

Records Archive

NHL 2017/2018

Overall: 78-94 (-12.81u)

54-66-0 (-10.31u)
24-26 (+1.5u)
0-2 (-4u)

Player Props: 0-0
Team Props:


NHL 2016/2017

Overall: 210-219-1 (+50.34u)

124-132 (+34.13u)
51-53 (+6.86u)
6-5 (+5.6)

Player Props: 9-6 (+4.2)
Team Props:
10-12 (-5.13)
8-8-1 (-0.3u)

1-3 (+5u)

NHL 2015/2016

Overall: 223-194-1 (+106.79u)

ML: 119-104 (+64.4)
Regulation: 75-69 (+27.84u)
Puckline: 0-5 (-10u)

Player Props: 16-7-1 (+14.75u)
Team Props: 13-6 (+15.8u)
Totals: 0-0
: 0-0
Grand Salamis: 0-0

Futures: 0-3 (-6u)

NHL 2014/2015

Overall: 331-357-10 (+11.25u)

ML: 95-105 (+4.66u)
Regulation: 100-94 (+17.76u)
Puckline: 31-38 (+8.02u)

Player Props: 48-39-7 (+8.65u)
Team Props: 17-10 (+13.77u)
Totals: 29-44-3 (-32.03u)
: 9-20 (-5.3u)
Grand Salamis: 1-3 (-4.28u)

Futures: 1-4 (0u)

NHL 2013/2014

Overall: 472-375-26 (+169.82u)

ML: 144-133 (+53.69u)
Regulation: 126-96 (+58.52u)
Puckline: 4-4-1 (+2.6u)

Player Props: 94-54-16 (+34.62u)
Team Props: 17-8 (+16.07u)
Totals: 84-72-9 (+11.66u)
Grand Salamis: 2-6 (-8.84u)

Futures: 1-2 (+1.5u)


Overall: 23-20 (+20.38u)

ML: 7-4 (+12.12u)
Regulation: 1-1 (+2u)
Puckline: 10-7 (+9.06u)

Totals: 4-0 (+7.2u)

Futures: 1-8 (-10u)


Overall ATS: 277-252-21

Playoffs ATS: 23-17-2
Regular Season ATS: 194-193-18
Preseason ATS: 59-41-1

Totals: 54-57-2
Teasers: 113-95-3
Props: 288-242