Thursday, October 23, 2014

Indianapolis Colts Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: IND -3 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

Before Week 7 the Colts were -1.5 point favorites for this game. After they beat up on the Bengals it reopened at -2.5. Even a Steelers win in prime-time could do nothing to slow down the money on Indy. It was promptly moved to -2.75, and we've now seen a full move to -3. I don't think anyone with eyes trust Pittsburgh right now, and a massive 89% of the bets are on the road team here.

Bottom Line

It's not just the eye test though. The numbers mirror exactly what we are seeing in Steelers games. The OL is flat out bad and they can't score once they get inside the 20. The pass defense can't stop anybody on the other side of the ball, and they can't get to the QB up front.

It couldn't be any different for Indy. Andrew Luck is firmly establishing himself among the elite at the position and he's finally getting good protection from his OL. On defense, they actually rank near the top against the pass, they are finding ways to pressure the QB, and they have one of the better drive success rates in the NFL. Who would've thought this was possible a month ago? Not me.

If that wasn't enough, the Colts also have one of the better average starting field positions, and special teams rankings, too.

I'm not saying that Indy will walk away with a double-digit road win, but the possibility is very real. This game has mismatch written all over it.

NFL Pick: IND -3.

Read moreWeek 8 picks.