Thursday, October 23, 2014

Buffalo Bills Vs. New York Jets: BUF +3 (-115) (Bovada)

Market Watch

In last week's look-ahead line this was a 'pick em' game. It reopened at -2.5 after Week 7, and now we're seeing a move to -3.  Someone needs to explain this to me because I don't get it. It also looks like I'm in the minority as 59% of the bets are on the J-E-T-S.


Bottom Line

When the Seattle Seahawks first acquired Percy Harvin, there were some fantastic articles written about how he could enhance their offense. A lot of it consisted of the variety you could employ with a Wilson and Lynch in the backfield. The Jets have no such weapons, so I don't expect him to be a savior for New York.

Will he improve it? Of course. This offense was without any legitimate threat all season. Decker provided an option, but not enough to scare anybody. Geno Smith is playing as bad as anyone at the position, and they sit near the bottom of every meaningful offensive category - including turnovers.

Defense to the rescue? Not so far. They can shut down the run, but they curiously rank really low on third down and inside their own 20. I guess that isn't all that surprising when they can't stop anybody in the air.

This pick isn't a big endorsement of the Bills either, but I trust them with Orton at QB much more than Manuel. Their defense should be able to slow down the Jets offense enough to win this game outright, so I'm more than happy to take the points, too.

NFL Pick: BUF +3.

Read moreWeek 8 picks.