Wednesday, October 15, 2014

New Orleans Saints Vs. Detroit Lions: DET -2.5 (-115) (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

The advanced line last week had the Lions favored by -1.5. When it reopened after Week 7, it came out at -2.5. That's not a significant move, but the Lions are getting some respect in the markets. There is some juice attached to that number, and square shops have already moved to the key number of -3. It will likely bounce back and forth up until kickoff.  So far 62% of the bets are on the Saints.

Bottom Line

It's entirely possible that New Orleans comes out of their bye week and look like a completely different team. They have the talent on D to be pretty good, but for whatever reason they've been terrible early in the year. They rank dead last in DVOA, 29th in adjusted sacks, 29th in red zone D, and 23rd on third down. Granted, the Lions offense isn't anything to write home about without Megatron, but they won't have to be if their defense continues playing like it has.

What I really like about this matchup is the fact that Jimmy Graham is out. With Sproles gone, and Graham on the sidelines, this offense will have a lot more trouble dictating terms on this side of the ball. Drew Brees is amazing, but he's hit and miss when it comes to road games. Detroit's D rank 1st in DVOA and have a killer front with the likes of Ansah, Suh, and Fairley.

If I had one reservation about this pick, it would be with the Detroit kicking game. It's become laughable at this point, but I'm banking on their field goal luck to turn around. If not, it could cost me, but I like their matchup advantages enough to make this a play.

NFL Pick: DET -2.5.

Read moreWeek 7 picks.