Thursday, October 16, 2014

New York Giants Vs. Dallas Cowboys: NYG +7 (Bovada)

Market Watch

Want to know what a line adjustment looks like? Look no further than this game. Last week the Cowboys were only favored by -3.5 in the look-ahead line at Westgate. After the Giants lost to the Eagles in prime-time, and the Cowboys beat Seattle IN Seattle, we saw a big shift in perception. The line reopened at -4.5, and it's been promptly bet all the way up to -7 at some books. The consensus line sits at -6.5, but you can get the full TD if you have options. 73% of the tickets are supporting Dallas.

Bottom Line

Yes the Cowboys have the best rushing attack in the NFL and their defense is playing way better than common sense would dictate, but they have their share of flaws too.

First of all their OL is average in pass protection. The Giants front seven aren't anything special, but they aren't bad either. The Gmen also match up quite well in two other particular categories here. The Cowboys rank 1st in third down conversions, and 12th in red zone scoring efficiency. The Giants rank 3rd in third down situations and 5th in red zone defense.

And while the Dallas D is much improved from a year ago, they still rank near the middle of the pack in most categories, and 30th in adjusted sack rate. If Eli needs time to move the ball, he should have it in this game.

For me, this line move is too much of an overreaction from last week. Will the Giants win this game? The odds are against it, but they should be able to stay competitive into the fourth quarter. I also like the option of a backdoor cover in this spot.

NFL Pick: NYG +7.

Read moreWeek 7 picks.