Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Cincinnati Bengals Vs. Indianapolis Colts: IND -3 (-115) (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

In the Westgate look-ahead line, the Colts were favored by -2.  After Week 6 action, this number moved to the key number of -3. There has been juice attached to it all week long, so I wouldn't be surprised if it moved to -3.5 at some point. If you like the Colts here, it's probably not a good idea to wait. There is an overwhelming amount of bets on Indy right now with 84% coming in on the home favorite.

Bottom Line

Along with most people, I really liked this Bengals team early in the year. They were covering spreads and showing they could win games with both sides of the ball. That all changed though once they were put under the bright lights of prime-time and got smacked in the mouth by the Patriots. At this point, that shouldn't surprise anybody, and it doesn't appear like they will get over the hump anytime soon.

An obvious problem they have is the injury to AJ Green. Sanu is a nice WR, but he's not a number one, let alone a guy who can dictate how defenses scheme. Marvin Jones was put on IR, so there is no help on the way either. This is an offense that was already below average on third down, and I expect that to drop further as long as Green is out.

And speaking of third down, the Colts D actually leads the league in that category through six weeks. That's obviously not going to last, but it's much better than anyone expected when you look at this unit on paper.

The key matchups will be Cincy's run game vs Indy's run D, and Andew Luck vs the Bengals secondary.  Given how poor Cincy's pass rush has been this season, I really like Luck's chances here. They've been on fire for the last month, and I think it continues on Sunday.

NFL Pick: IND -3.

Read moreWeek 7 picks.