Monday, October 6, 2014

Green Bay Packers Vs. Miami Dolphins: GB -3 (-120) (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

Westgate had this line at -3 in the look-ahead, but it has re-opened at -3.25. If you like the Dolphins with the hook you have that option, and if you like the Packers at -3 you can do that too. I don't expect this to remain available all week though. A full move off the 3 seems inevitable.




Bottom Line

When Rodgers told everyone to "relax", he came right out and backed it up with a near-perfect performance against the Bears. He followed it up again when the Vikings came to town.  Can they remain prolific once more in Miami?

It won't be as easy, that's for certain.

The Dolphins have a legitimate defense, and they have a quality pass rush that should make life much more difficult for Rodgers in the pocket. Thankfully, they managed to get Eddie Lacy going last week. He won't have the massive holes to run through against Miami, but if there is one soft spot on this Dolphins defense, it's their linebackers. This side of the ball will be a good battle, but Green Bay will have opportunities to make things happen.

The primary reason I like this matchup for the Packers is due to the other side of things. Ryan Tannehill is coming off one of his best performances as a pro, but it came against a Raiders team in the midst of implosion. How can Miami beat reporters say he has "momentum" after that? This is still a passing game that is completely unpredictable week to week. The WRs have had far too many drops, and now Tannehill might be put in a position to force the issue. If they fall behind by a couple scores, it could get dicey. The Green Bay defense might not be "fixed", but they are inching towards a middle of the pack unit - which is all you ask for.

The way Miami wins this game is if their defense contains the Packers and forces a couple turnovers. That would allow their offense to establish a ground-based attack and keep Tannehill in a managable position. Realistically, that is the best case scenario, and I don't see that happening. I expect another uneven performance from the Dolphins, which should lead to another round of self-doubting questions next week.

NFL Pick: GB -3.

Read more: Week 6 picks