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Monday, October 6, 2014

NFL Predictions 2014 Week 6: Chargers Vs. Raiders

San Diego Chargers Vs. Oakland Raiders: SD -6.5 (-115) (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

The Westgate look-ahead line had this game at -6, but after another dominating cover by the Chargers, this line re-opened at -7 on Sunday night.  Right now you can still get -6.5 if you have a good sportsbook, but I would still go ahead and play this at -7 if I didn't have a choice. This number should be minimum -7.5.

Bottom Line

In last week's Football Outsiders power ratings the Chargers ranked 12th in the league. In reality, they are a better team than that and they'll get another uptick after a great performance in Week 5. Granted, it came against a Jets team in disarray, but that's what good teams do - blow out the bad teams.

Most of the talk surrounding San Diego revolves around Rivers, but it's their defense that has impressed me most. They were flying under the radar in September, and now people are beginning to take notice. The other revelation seems to be Branden Oliver, who has channeled his inner Sproles to give life to their running game.

On the other side we have a Raiders team who has hit the reset button once again. That hasn't made a difference for the product on the field in the recent past, and I don't expect it to do much this time either. Their season is already over and they must transition to a new coaching philosophy mid-stream against one of the best teams in the AFC. Good luck with that.

The only concern I'd have for this game would be the state of the banged up San Diego OL, but their offense is based on quick-timing passing plays so the scheme should be able to negate any deficiencies in that area - at least for this matchup. They are 5-0 ATS and I've been on them for 4 of them. Sooner or later the opponent will cover, but I don't think it will be this week.

NFL Pick: SD -6.5.

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