Saturday, October 4, 2014

NFL Predictions 2014 Week 5: Seahawks Vs Redskins

Seattle Seahawks Vs. Washington Redskins: SEA -7 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

In the look-ahead line Westgate had the Seahawks as -6 point favorites for this MNF matchup.  It was re-opened at -6.5 after the Redskins got trounced in front of America last Thursday, and it was quickly bet up to -7 not long after. If I was setting this line, I wouldn't have it anything less than -7.5. A big 70% of the bets are coming in on the defending champs.


Bottom Line

Once upon a time the home dog used to be a trendy pick for savvy bettors on MNF, but the stats haven't shown any advantage either way over the last decade or so. That didn't stop some from taking KC last week against the NE, but will the smart money come in on Washington as well?

I doubt it.

The Kirk Cousins bandwagon came to a screeching halt last week when he completely imploded against the Giants. A surprisingly amount of bets were on the Skins that night, but I took a pass on that game because I wasn't sold on Cousins. He still might wind up being a competent QB in this league, but he's gotta put together some memorable performances first. Unfortunately for him, he has to bounce back against the best football defense in the world on the national stage.

It would be beneficial to Cousins if they could establish a strong run game, but Seattle might have the fastest group of linebackers in the league. I have no earthly idea how Washington will be able to move the ball and score points, and that game-plan becomes even cloudier when we factor in the status of LT Trent Williams.

On the other side of the ball, it should be smooth-sailing for Seattle's offense. It was already a dangerous group last year, but once you factor in Percy Harvin they become next-to-impossible to scheme against.

Finally, for whatever reason Washington haven't figured out how to turn their special teams play around. They were historically bad last year, and they sit 31st in this area since the 2014 season kicked off. As if Washington didn't have enough to worry about, this puts them at a disadvantage before either of their units even take the field.

NFL Pick: SEA -7.

Read more: Week 6 picks