Friday, October 3, 2014

NFL Predictions 2014 Week 5: Jets Vs. Chargers

New York Jets Vs. San Diego Chargers: SD -6.5 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

Last week Westgate had this line at San Diego -6.5. There wasn't much in Week 4 that changed anyone's opinions, so it re-opened at -7.  Since then we've seen a steady move off that key number and it currently sits back down at -6.5.  It's possible it even drops down to -6, but I see no reason why this line should be anything lower than a touchdown. So far 77% of the tickets are on the home team.


Bottom Line

Early in the season I've backed the Chargers and faded the Jets. Both have worked out well thus far, so it's no surprise which side I'm on in this matchup. San Diego are legit contenders in the AFC, but are they being perceived as one yet?

The SD defense has improved to a middle of the pack unit, which is way better than they were a year ago. Along with home field, they shouldn't have too many problems dealing with an offense that can't get out of it's own way. Now there are lots of cries to start Mike Vick over Geno Smith. I don't know what the answer is there, but neither one of them scare me this Sunday.

On the other side of the ball, the Jets continue to struggle against vertical passing teams. The Chargers can't run the ball without Mathews or Woodhead, but they won't need to in this game. Rivers is playing at an MVP-level and should have more than enough opportunities to move the sticks and put up points.

This is not a good matchup for the NY J-E-T-S.

NFL Pick: SD -6.5.

Read more: Week 5 picks