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Monday, October 27, 2014

NFL Betting Preview 2014 Week 8: Redskins Vs. Cowboys

Washington Redskins Vs. Dallas Cowboys

Market Watch

Last week in the look-ahead line Vegas had this number at -8. After Week 7 games it reopened at -7.5, but that was clearly too low because it got steamed all the way up to -10 by the end of the day. You'd think a double digit spread would be enough to attract some interest on the other side, but 73% of the bets are on the Cowboys.

Bottom Line

What can I say about the Dallas Cowboys?  They're back in everybody's good graces this year and they're coming off a straight up win in Seattle and a ten point win over the Giants.

Romo's efficiency ranking is in the top 10, there isn't a better offense on third down, and their run game is steamrolling opposing defenses. Their own defense has improved to a middle of the pack unit and they are finding ways to disrupt drives at a surprising high rate. The only glaring weakness on paper is their pass rush, which sits in the bottom third of the league.

Can the Redskins do anything to cover this spread?

Their prospects don't look good. They've only covered two games all year and they are winless on the road in three contests. There are two categories that they rate high in - run defense and red zone defense. Everything else is mediocre or bad. Washington can't stop good passing teams, they do a poor job converting third downs, their special teams is still a disaster, and they have one of the worst turnover differentials in the NFL.

I can't find a good reason to back the Redskins, even with a 10 point spread. I'd consider making a play on the Cowboys, but I'm not a fan of laying double digit chalk either - especially in an NFC East divisional game. Therefore, it's a pass for me.
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